v3

Paul has a deep burden for the Jews. He further expresses this at the beginning of the next chapter: "My heart’s desire and prayer to God for Israel is, that they might be saved." (10:1) So we see that the stage is being set for Romans 9 -- A discourse about the nation Israel.

vv4-5 

In verses 4-5, Paul is describing how Israel was chosen as the nation which would usher in the Messiah. They were the chosen people of God for SERVICE, not for SALVATION. This SERVICE entailed the adoption as God's people, the shekinah glory of God, the Abrahamic/Mosaic/Davidic covenants, the service of God in the temple, and the promise to bless all nations through Abraham's seed. I call this a ministerial election (i.e. an election of service), which must be distinguished from a salvific election.

v6
The rhetorical questions Paul is answering in this chapter are, "Why isn't the Jewish nation (as a whole) part of the salvific elect since it is the ministerial elect? Haven't God's promises failed if they are not?" In this verse, Paul is claiming that God's promises to Israel have not failed. For the promise for salvific election was never meant to be for all of Israel unconditionally, but rather for those of "spiritual" Israel (i.e. believers). In Galatians, Paul tells us, "if ye be Christ’s, then are ye Abraham’s seed, and heirs according to the promise" (Gal 3:29). Only a small portion of ethnic Israel is actually part of this "spiritual" Israel who have been elected salvifically in Christ.

v7

Contrary to their thinking that all the seed of Abraham are children of God, Paul is claiming that only believers in Christ are children of God (See also Jn 1:12). When Paul says, "In Isaac shall your seed be called", he is talking about Christ (whose lineage was through Isaac). He is the true seed in which salvific election resides. The entire seed (i.e. lineage) of Abraham therefore has no unconditional rights to salvific election.

v8

Paul is echoing what he has said in the last two verses. "Flesh" means physical lineage of Abraham. The children of the true promise (i.e. Christ) are reckoned or counted as the true spiritual seed of Abraham. They are truly " Abraham’s seed, and heirs according to the promise" (Gal 3:29). Our identity as the seed is rooted in the fact that Christ is the one true seed. Paul wrote to the Galatians, "Now to Abraham and his seed were the promises made. He said not, And to seeds, as of many; but as of one, And to your seed, which is Christ" (Gal 3:16). The seed was always promised to be "one" person, even in the protoevangelium of Gen 3:15.

v9

Paul is now explaining how the "Word of promise" (called the "Word of God" in verse 6) has not failed. He starts with a discussion of the lineage of the true seed -- Christ.

v10
Paul is going into more detail about the true seed, Christ, who was in the line of Isaac (as mentioned in verse 7).

v11

Now Paul explains that the ministerial election of the line of Jacob was unconditional (See Deut 7:7-8). This election had nothing to do with salvation, but rather was an election of Israel to be the chosen nation to usher in the Messiah. Paul is showing that God is sovereign. He can choose people to ministerial election however he wants. He grants ministries to whomever He wills. He used Cyrus (an unbeleiver) to free Israel from Babylon. Today, the Spirit imparts giftings at His discretion. Similary, He chose Israel to usher in the Messiah unconditionally.

v12

This is more proof of Paul's emphasis on the ministerial election, not salvation, of Jacob. Notice the word "serve". Paul's line of thinking at this point is on service, not salvation.

v13

Jesus said, " If any man come to me, and hate not his father, and mother, and wife, and children, and brethren, and sisters, yea, and his own life also, he cannot be my disciple" (Lk 14:26). The word hate in this verse is used similarly, in terms of "preference". If it intended to express a literal hatred, then Jesus is telling us to violate one of the 10 Commandments (i.e. Honor your mother and father). God "preferred" Jacob over Esau, not unto salvation, but unto ministerial election. God chose Jacob's line to usher in Christ. Esau's descendants were not all unconditionally consigned to hell. In fact, there was a remnant of Edomite saints (Amos 9:12). Jack Cottrell rightly states, "The ones not chosen are not thereby condemned to hell; they are simply excluded from having a part in the working out of God's redemptive plan."

v14

Is God unrighteous for picking Jacob's line unconditionally, instead of Esau's line? May it never be! Paul is showing them their hypocrisy. They are blaming God for being unrighteous in not saving all Jews, yet they as a nation had been elected ministerially to usher in the Messiah, UNCONDITIONALLY, and favored over Esau's line! They obviously never complained about that ministerial election, since they were on the winning end. Now they are complaining for being on the other end of the stick with respect to salvific election.

v15

God has the right to show mercy on whom he wants and compassion on whom He wants, whether it be concerning ministerial election (as he just illustrated with Jacob/Esau) or salvific election. He calls the shots! The very context of this statement made to Moses in Ex 33:19 is related to ministerial graciousness, not salvific mercy. God graciously showed Moses His back parts when Moses asked to see His glory. The Hebrew word rendered by Paul as "mercy" broadly means "to do someone a favor, to show favor, to be merciful and kind, to bestow a blessing." God, as ruler, has sole rights to choose how to elect people ministerially or for salvation. In the case of ministerial election, He showed mercy (or favor) to Israel unconditionally. In the case of salvific election, He desires have mercy on 'believers' - both Jew and Gentile; a concept which has been laid out in the entire book of Romans up to this point.

v16

The vehicle for dispensing mercy is solely determined by God. If He chooses to use a nation unconditionally, so be it! If He chooses to save people who believe, rather than ethnically, so be it! Without any pressure from mankind, God has decided to make salvation through Christ alone (through faith) -- Not by ethnicity, and not by works of the Law. No once can persuade God to make salvation operate differently.

v17

This is Paul's 2nd illustration of ministerial election. God foreknew that the Israelites would be enslaved under a wicked Pharaoh. He therefore planned to use Pharaoh ministerially (in a negative sense) to display His power to Israel. Pharoah was already a wicked ruler who had rejected the grace of God. We're talking about a king who ordered all the first born of the Israelites to be killed prior to God ever mentioning hardening him (Ex 1:15-16). His wickedness was not of God's doing, but His own. He had a chance to repent up until the point of his hardening. For God commands "all men everywhere to repent" (Ac 17:30) -- and a moral imperative requires a moral freedom. However, at this point God hardened pharaoh by giving him up to uncleanness through the lusts of his own heart (Rom 1:24,26,28). The Greek word for raise up means "to rouse up, stir up, incite". So we see that God stirred up an already-hardened individual by withholding His preventing grace and by putting circumstances in place which would further aggrevate his condition; An individual who had plenty of chances to get right with God before Moses ever came on scene. Prior to this hardening, Pharaoh had the grace to seek God (Rom 1:19-20, Rom 2:14-15), as do all men.

v18

Young's Literal translates this more clearly: "So, then, to whom He willeth, He doth kindness, and to whom He willeth, He doth harden." So who does God desire to show salvific mercy or kindness to? Those believing! Who does God desire to harden? Those who have continually rejected Him already! God cried out to Israel, "Harden not your heart, as in the provocation, and as in the day of temptation in the wilderness" (Ps 95:8). Israel hardened themselves long before this. We must remember that the Bible clearly says that God tempts no man to do evil (Jas 1:13). Therefore, hardening is more likely a function of the person, and not of God. For example, if you place chocolate and clay under intense heat, one will melt and one will harden. Under the "heat" of the circumstances God arranged, Pharaoh became hardened several times. Similarly, God has placed circumstances around stiffnecked Israel in order to harden them (temporarily) and show favor to the gentiles. The ministry of Christ is what hardened them. For His message and actions were their stumblingblock, just as Moses' message and actions were a stumblingblock to Pharaoh. Rom 11:11 says that, "through their fall salvation is come unto the Gentiles." This doesn't mean that salvation was never for the Gentiles; for even Jonah was sent to Nineveh to preach repentance. Rather, it means that God's efforts, through His disciples, would center on the Gentiles.

v19

Adam Clarke comments on this verse, "The question here is: If God’s glory be so highly promoted and manifested by our obstinacy, and he suffers us to proceed in our hardness and infidelity, why does he find fault with us, or punish us for that which is according to his good pleasure?" How could they even consider such a question - ""who has resisted His will [boulema]?"" For they had repeatedly resisted it! ""But the Pharisees and lawyers rejected the counsel [boule] of God against themselves."" (Lk 7:30) Paul rebuked the Jews, saying: ""ye do always resist the Holy Ghost: as your fathers did, so do ye"" (Acts 7:51). Jesus wept over Israel, crying, ""Jerusalem, Jerusalem ... how often did I will to gather thy children together ... and ye did not will"" (Mt 23:37, YLT). Israel's hardened state was not God's will, but He conveniently used their hardness to show mercy to the Gentiles. ""Through their fall salvation is come unto the Gentiles, for to provoke them to jealousy"" (Rom 11:11). After much rejection by the Jews, Paul finally exclaimed, ""Be it known therefore unto you [Jews], that the salvation of God is sent unto the Gentiles, and that they will hear it."" (Acts 28:28)

v20
"Why have you made me thus?" -- A typical question from someone who wants to take the blame off himself and put it on God. Shall an evil person ever blame God for making them evil? May it never be! God does not create wickedness. Adam tried to place the blame on God for His sin, saying, "The woman you gave me" caused me to sin (Gen 3:12). I can picture Israel saying, "God, you led us out of Egypt and tempted us to doubt you in the wilderness. You put the law on us as a burden. You sent us into Babylon. You turned us into a ritualistic nation who would ultimately reject the message of Christ. Why did you create us this way?" The bottom line is, they got that way by their own free volition. God gave them so many chances, and they rejected. "All day long I have stretched forth my hands unto a disobedient and gainsaying people." (Rom 10:21) After much longsuffering, He has finally withheld his hand of prevenient grace for a temporary season, and concentrated His efforts on the Gentiles.

v21

Doesn't God have the right to take these rebellious people and make them a vessel of dishonor in order to give honor to gentiles who will believe. Notice that "dishonor" doesn't mean damnation to Hell, but rather a position of disfavor as opposed to their previous position of favor).

v22

This verse is saying the same thing as the previous verse. "Destruction" here doesn’t mean damnation to Hell, but is symbolic for a position of disfavor (similar to "dishonor" in previous verse). Broken vessels are useless for carrying anything. The verb "fitted" (Greek kartaridzo) means "to prepare, mend, fit, adjust, arrange". The form of the verb in this verse can be interpreted as a passive or middle voice participle. If taken in its middle voice sense, it would be interpreted "fitted themselves to destruction". Even if it is taken in its passive sense, God would not have "fit" Israel for destruction from its inception. Rather, He would have "fit" them to destruction after continual rejections of His grace. In addition, the verb "fit" doesn't necessitate a permanent action. For example, in Galatians 6:1, the same Greek word is used for "restoring" (kartartidzo) a fallen brother, which shows that the fallen brother had been in a good state at one point, and then fell, and needed "fitted" back to that state. A reading of Romans 11 show that Israel's time of dishonor and destruction is temporary. God's goal is to provoke Israel to jealousy to graft them back in (11:1, 11, 14, 23, 25, 30). For His ultimate plans for Israel are "thoughts of peace, and not of evil, to give you an expected end" (Jer 29:11).

v23

God conveniently used Israel's hardness to show mercy to the Gentiles. God planned on offering mercy to the Gentiles from the beginning. (Isaiah 42:6, 49:6, 60:3)

v24

The calling is to all who believe, whether Jew or Gentile. God's general call is to all people -- "And I, if I be lifted up from the earth, will draw all men unto me" (Jn 12:32). The atonement is available to all men -- "And he is the propitiation for our sins: and not for ours only, but also for the sins of the whole world" (1Jn 2:2). It is God's will for all men to be saved -- " who doth will all men to be saved, and to come to the full knowledge of the truth" (1 Tim 2:4). God's efficacious drawing is to believers, and His foreknowledge of believers is the basis of their predestination and calling (Rom 8:30). Paul also seems to imply elsewhere that our "calling" can be forfeitted. He tells Galatian Christians, "I marvel that ye are so soon removed from him that called you into the grace of Christ unto another gospel" (Gal 1:6)

v25-26

This is referring to believing Gentiles, who were not previously called His people (as a whole), but are now His people by faith.

v27 

This is referring to believing Jews, of which there were very few. In Romans 11:5, Paul says, "Even so then at this present time also there is a remnant according to the election of grace." Election of grace means election of faith, not unconditional election. For Paul says in Romans 4:16 -- " Therefore it is of faith, that it might be by grace". He also says that we are saved by grace through faith (Eph 2:8-9).

v28

"These appear to be forensic terms, and refer to the conclusion of a judicial proceeding; the Lord has tried and found them guilty, and will immediately execute upon them the punishment due to their transgressions." - Adam Clarke

v29

Thank God for the few in Israel who have believed. Their faithfulness is what kept the nation from being destroyed altogether like Sodom and Gomorrha. Even when Elijah was in despair over the godlessness of Israel, God told Him: "Yet I have left me seven thousand in Israel, all the knees which have not bowed unto Baal, and every mouth which hath not kissed him" (1Kings 19:18). There was a small portion of Jews whom God had reserved as His, because they had not bowed unto Baal.

v30

"What shall we say then" -- This is the sum of the whole chapter. God's salvific election is based on faith (as opposed to unconditional election), and the Gentiles, by the masses, are receiving Christ by faith. They have attained the righteousness which Israel had failed to attain.

v31

The Jews strived to be saved by vain external observance of the law and thus failed. Jesus told the masses, "Except your righteousness shall exceed the righteousness of the scribes and Pharisees, ye shall in no case enter into the kingdom of heaven" (Mt 5:20). The only way to have perfect righteousness is to be justified by faith in Christ. Paul has been establishing this all through Romans (1:17, 3:22, 3:28, 3:30, 5:1, 5:2).

v32

Why did they fail to receive salvific election -- because they sought it not by faith! It has nothing to do with unconditional election.

v33

Notice the stumbling stone, the rock, is a person. In other words, Christ was given to Israel, and His grace was available to "whoever believes on Him". This is a wide invitation to all. Sadly, Israel tripped over the stumbling stone and were offended by Him. Christ's ministry is what actually hardened them, although this hardening was a function of their hearts (e.g. Chocolate/Clay illustration above).
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Key Points from Romans 10 which support this interpretation

vv3-4,10-11

Salvation is by FAITH, and the Jews didn't attain it by faith. Romans 10 and 11 place all the blame on Israel for not believing! There is no allusion to unconditional election.

vv12-13

Salvation is still open to all -- including Jews

vv19-21
God had extended mercy to the Jews and they rejected it over and over again. Finally He chose to harden them to show mercy to the Gentiles, and at the same time provoke them to Jealousy to return to Him. This proves that the hardness in Romans 9 is temporary.
 

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Key Points from Romans 11 which support this interpretation

vv8-10

The hardening of Romans 9 is mentioned again

vv1,11,14,23-24,25,30-31  

The hardening in Romans 9 is only temporary. It is to show mercy to the Gentiles, which is intended to make the Jews Jealous and draw them back.

v5

There are a few Jews who have received salvific election by grace; these are the small part of the "spiritual" Israel mentioned in Romans 9. Election of grace means election of faith. For Paul says in Romans 4:16 -- " Therefore it is of faith, that it might be by grace". He also says that we are saved by grace through faith (Eph 2:8-9).

v20
Israel's failure was due to a lack of faith (not an unconditional election to damnation)

vv26-27
At some point, a massive number of Jews will turn back to Christ and the Old Testament promises of restoration will be fullfilled. This proves that the hardness, dishonour, and destruction of the vessels in Romans 9 has nothing to do with individual salvation, but rather with the temporary hardness of a nation.